Bad science: "Classic Rock fans support McCain"

Here's a chance to bring some science back into this blog. Actually, it's a chance to point out bad science.

I was surprised to come across an article in the news that claimed that fans of Classic Rock music are more likely to support John McCain over the Democrats. It was based on a survey of radio listeners. The supposed gist is this:

"It also found that John McCain, the Republican candidate for U.S. president, was the top pick for the Oval Office for men and classic rock partisans -- those people who tune in to stations playing music from the "original classic rock era" of 1964 to 1975, comprised of bands like Led Zeppelin, The Who and Pink Floyd.

...

Jacobs Media said the survey, conducted among 69 U.S. rock-formatted stations in markets as diverse as Los Angeles and Knoxville to Buffalo..."

Here is the full article. Needless to say I was surprised and disappointed, as a fan of "bands like Led Zeppelin, The Who and Pink Floyd." Is this the company I keep?

Time for some amateur demographic speculation: Now I would certainly expect fans of certain types of music to lean Republican. For instance country music... After all, today's country music is nothing but awful diva pop thinly disguised with some fake working class attitude. Hmm, something awful thinly disguised with some fake working class attitude... that's pretty much the Republican party itself!

But bands like Led Zeppelin, The Who and Pink Floyd? My sense is that their fans can be sorted into a few broad groups:

1) Baby boomers who came of age in the late 60s and early 70s (they lost their cherry to the Byrds, tripped to Hendrix at Woodstock, and mellowed out to Clapton's Layla)

2) Some people who were in high school in the 90s (While our stupid classmates were out buying New Kids on the Block and Vanilla Ice albums, we discovered Zeppelin just in time for the Wayne's World revival, synched up Dark Side of the Moon to the Wizard of Oz, and even today at 30 we sometimes put on that tight Pink Floyd prism t-shirt)

3) Working class dudes over 40 who don't listen to country. (Whether they used to rock to Eddie Money or Charlie Daniels, to this day they still yell "Play Freebird!")

So are we to conclude, as the article author would like us to, that we are dealing here with the canonical combination of 1) turncoat hippies (Jerry Rubin writ large!), 2) turncoat intellectuals (geez, finally give a dorky kid a decent job and he turns all Ayn Rand on you), and 3) people who drank so much that they now vote based on who they would like to have a beer with?

No. And therein lies the poor, or perhaps intentionally misleading (!) science.

The survey claims to report a characteristic of a group (fans of these bands), based on a study of a very select subgroup (people who listen to a certain type of radio station). And that subgroup is itself a subgroup of a very select group - people who listen to music on the radio at all. Ahh, an unrepresentative sample... science error numero uno!

We all know that many people have given up on music radio altogether. Witness the soaring popularity of IPODs, MP3 players, books on tape, and everything else. And when they do listen to the radio, Americans are tuning into NPR in record numbers, and also those 'shock jock' and 'morning zoo' type shows which aren't music. In fact, who even listens to music on the radio anymore?? I might even conclude that to still be listening regularly to music radio, especially in light of the Clear Channel consolidation where any format plays the same 30 songs off of a hard drive over and over, one must be an inherently conservative person. It is, afterall, an inherently conservative (and/or just plain stupid!) format.

So, if I were to guess, to generalize broadly, my group #1 is listening to NPR or occasionally dusting off their old albums, and my group #2 hasn't listened to music on the radio (or paid for a CD!) in about 10 years. That leaves elements of Group #3 remaining to respond to this survey.

So the proper conclusion from this survey is: "People who listen to 'Classic Rock' format radio stations are more likely to support McCain. The political leanings of fans of certain music is not determined."

I'm not holding my breath for a correction.

..........

Appendix:

It is not related to the poor science issue, but as long as I'm at it, I would like to examine how "Classic Rock" has actually ceased to denote an actual type of music. It used to mean what the authors claim it means above - "comprised of bands like Led Zeppelin, The Who and Pink Floyd." It was the genre of rock, often more arty, influenced by blues, folk, and country, that was distinct from metal, punk, alternative, or modern hard rock - all of which are fine in their own right. However, starting about 10 years ago, rock music from the 80s, such as U2 and Van Halen, became known as part of it. Then metal from the 80s and 90s was added. Today a 'Classic Rock' radio station will play as much Nirvana, Twisted Sister, and Ramones as it will Led Zepppelin. This reveals that 'Classic Rock' is not a genre of music, but just a marketing tool. It is white men ages 35 to 54. "Classic Rock" is nothing but a moving advertising window.